Power Model Integrator Reduces Forecasting Errors

Researchers at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory developed a software tool that greatly improves the accuracy of net interchange predictions. The tool, called the Power Model Integrator, adaptively combines the strengths of different forecasting models continuously and in real time. This addresses a variety of scenarios that impact electricity use, from peak periods during the day to seasonal swings. Performance of the tool was tested against five commonly used forecasting models processing a year's worth of historical power system data. For forecasts one-to-four hours out, they achieved a 30-55 percent reduction in error. And with longer-term forecasts—the most difficult to accurately make—the tool also performed best.